Stage 2 - identify areas at significant risk

We are currently undertaking a preliminary flood risk assessment.  It will be completed by December 2011 and published on this website. The full report will be made available as well as a non-technical summary document.

The assessment will be used to identify areas in Northern Ireland where flood risk is most significant. These are referred to as Significant Flood Risk Areas (SFRAs) and will be the focus for future mapping and planning under the Directive.

To identify SFRAs, the assessment will look at historical flood events as well as the potential for future flooding from all significant sources which for Northern Ireland are rivers, the sea, surface water and impoundments (reservoirs, dams and large ponds). The assessment will also account for climate change (PDF 52kb) predictions. It will examine the consequences that flooding has on the four risk flood classifications (PDF 53kb) defined within the Floods Directive – human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity.

It is important to note that the focus of the Directive is to identify and manage the risk of flooding where it is considered to be significant at a national level.  

For more information on the methodology we are using, click on the links below.

The assessment will ensure that we have the information to identify the areas where flood risk is most significant. This will enable us and others to target valuable resources in a coordinated manner to manage risk effectively.  

We have mapped where previous floods have occurred and using computer models, we can predict the potential extent and impact of future floods. Using a Geographical Information System (GIS) application we will determine the adverse impacts on human health and economic activity.  We are also consulting with the Northern Ireland Environment Agency on the environment and cultural heritage impacts.  

This methodology allows us to rank areas according to the significance of the flood risk.

Areas with the potential to flood have been mapped which informs us about how many people and properties would be affected and the economic value of potential property damage. Through consultation with others and our own research, further information has been gathered on these areas in relation to demographics, business activity, infrastructure, land use, sites of cultural heritage and environmental importance.

Northern Ireland currently does not have legislation for the management of reservoir safety which means that detailed structural assessments are not available or readily derivable. Without these, it is not possible to accurately determine significant flood risk from reservoirs however Rivers Agency has produced inundation maps which estimate the potential impact of reservoir failure. From these we have identified Reservoir Risk Areas.

Using all of this information we are currently determining the areas that we consider to be at significant flood risk.